Loading...Hey guys, today I discuss something weird I’ve noticed with the Missouri bundles. Let me know what ya think below!
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Ross Rowley:
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From what I have seen so far, the 1st bundle Missouri RNG appears to bait small F2P accounts, while milking whale accounts who rush through the bundles regardless if they get lucky on the 3rd or 20th bundle.
@KevintheChuker i dont have the misery nor do i want her after shes gotten nerfed into the ground
I got it first try
I have no doubt about an algorythm that alters your drop chance, based on $$$ the account generates.
I’ve ditch quite a lot of money in the game so far. It’s my 1st year playing. The money went mostly in premium ships and doubloons. I will never gamble on crates.
Fun fact. Over the last week or so, I’ve received 2 ingame pools about my satisfaction. I answered “dissatisfied twice” and something I never saw before happened. I received some amazing rewards in normal containers. A shot of 1000 doubloons, and 100 +50% XP signals. This makes me very suspicious.
I’m not playing the lottery with Wargaming. If I pay, I want to know in advance what I am paying for. I’m a whale, but not entirely stupid.
My next purchase will probably be the premium tier 6 battleship Arizona. It’s about 30$ canadian. I like playing T6-7-8. I already have West Virginia 1941, but I’d rather have the 12 guns without overmatching 27mm, than the 8 wonky guns that overmatch and overpen stuff.
Yeah… no lottery… I’m not dumb
@Petit Roque I got the USS Arizona for free from the Verizon shit they had from November through December 31st of 2020
wg: what, you got missouri in the first bundle? this is a bug, patch will be up very soon.
This comment is made from the 5 minute 20-ish second mark after hearing about the poll data. I had not yet logged in some time and when I heard how often people got Missouri in the first few bundles, so I then loaded up the game to see my luck. When I open the first in the series bundle it was Missouri. I really believe this poll you ran might be accurate that the placement of Missouri is very weighted to the front or back of the series. If it is of anymore help for data gathering, I used to spend a bit of money on the game but haven’t in a while (multiple months).
Exactly the same here. Opened the game, went to the Armory, clicked open the first gambling container to see what happens. It showed the Missouri. Took it for 1500 dubs, got 19200 dubs and a port slot back as I already had the original. Closed the game…
Are you implying that the drop rate maybe higher/lower for Wallet Whales?
@Lee Benson i am a wallet whale and i did not get it in the first 3 so far
Would have been cool to see Missouri for steel or research points as an end game ship that will print all the credits you would ever want. (If wargaming wasn’t so greedy with the Santa containers)
Your sir are smarter then Wargaming.
I think your analysis is a little flawed. Because (at least here in the UK) you see the contents of each bundle before you buy it, therefore the number of people reporting getting it in their first bundle will be heavily over represented, for them it’s no longer a gamble but a straight purchase for 1500 doubloons. Similarly Some people may be willing to gamble a number of doubloons in the hope they get her early but set themselves a sensible limit; as a result I would expect to see the number of reports of people getting it in earlier bundles to be higher than in later bundles. I think to get a better sense of it the drop rate is truly random you would need to compare, for each bundle 1- 41 the number of people who saw a bundle vs the number of times that bundle contained a Missouri.
These polls just don’t work, too many bias variables.
@William van der Scheer yup: you are polling two different distributions: whatever WG is doing (which if they are smart about it, isn’t a true normal distribution at all), and the distribution of how much players are willing to spend on crates. And that the latter has a high bias toward low crate numbers isn’t surprising at all.
And probably a 3rd one because the chance that someone is reporting an early drop vs a 10 (or 20 crate drop) is likely much higher too.
when he said hurricane at first moment I thought he is talking about clan battles hahahaha 🙂 Thank you for video and stay safe
I’ve seen so many people being belittled when they play Missouri’s thanks to this whole debacle lol, it’s both amusing and kinda sad
I find it strange, for a software developer like WG, that they’ve never heard of gaussian distribution. That’s roughly how these bundles should be distributed. The whole damn company probably flunked the math.
You capitalists and your bourgeois math… We at Wargaming are good Russians and use the Vodkasian system of distribution, which is that comrades drink free while you pay the tab.
First it is difficult to judge it there is really is a Gaussian distribution or if it is really absent… because of player bias. There is a way larger chance that players that are lucky to have the drop within the first 5 crates are indeed spending through those 5 crates, cause 5 crate’s is still considered a steal. Than the larger the limit of crates, the smaller the subset of players that are buying till an actual drop. And that there is a correlation between Whales and late drops isn’t that weird, because you are probably a whale or someone with CC doubloons if you are willing to spend up to crate 41 for only one ship.
Secondly, I don’t think a real Gaussian distribution would be that attractive for player. In order to entice players you want to give enough publicity for early drops and not the main distribution with 66% of the players having to take out 14 till 27 crates, cause spending 21K till 40K doubloon is generally a bad deal for any T9 BB ship, especially if the mean is at 30.7K doubloons, meaning you have 1 out of 2 chance you have to pay over 30.7K! Manipulating the distribution to make the early drops more prominent, helps publicity, while the center isn’t that interesting at all because most players (with sanity) will stop at a set level (14/ 15 crates would mathematically be a sane drop-off) before a drop, and only the Whales that are going the full in, will ever buy 41 crates. And while Missouri is still only WG giving out pixels, the other rewards are even less of a ‘cost’ for WG (might even be a win because they add to server retention). WG isn’t maximizing their profit by getting a normal distribution, because it better to hand out a few ships early and get more people to buy in. Heck, even I got my brain messed up with all the reports about early drops! But remember, the HOUSE ALWAYS WINS!
Players who haven’t spent for several months or ever, are getting Missouri in early boxes, the whales are paying a fortune. Working as intended.
i got it in 6 containers
@Matt Smith Same.
Makes sense after I saw a dude with only 35 random battles playing the Missouri.
@Alarick Le so far I’m getting good damage and kills but my team always belly up at the end
Eh I’m usually a whale, but I have Missouri already, and im tired of giving wg my money and they keep raising the cost of whaling, im diverting their portion of my budget into my other hobbies from now on
Wargambling giving into the player feedback and “giving back to the community”.
Now, players will say ” Wargambling isn’t so bad, I got my Missouri in the first bundle”.
Same
I obtained the Missouri years ago. However, I was curious and opened 3 of the bundles and got her in the 3rd. The 19,400 doubloons was very welcome!
I got Missouri off the bat for 1,250 gold. I already had 900 so it was like 3 extra bucks
yes, WG decreased the number of boxes from 72 to 41 compared to “De Witt” but they increased the cost of a single box by 500 to 1500 dublones. The worst price is therefor 61,5k dubs compared to 71k.
Also the same for super containers. If you come back after a while away you’ll get a super containers in the first 1-2dyas
Just did an experiment I had some old dubs left so tried it out .. got the ship on 3rd bundle
This is damage control on WG’s part. They know their playerbase all too well – they know that if they let them have a new “shiny” for next to nothing in this one instance, that the majority of them will completely forget all the transgressions of the past few months, go back to singing WG’s praises and playing their favorite video game. And after a decent interval, WG will go right back to it’s old ways.
I looked at the first available bundle and there it was. Since I already had it I was happy to trade 1500 doubs for 19200 doubs. Yay for me!
WOW….that’s nice 😀
@Frans v. T Is it still gambling when you know you will win and what the payout ahead of time? Probably the best trade all month.
I got it in 6 bundles. Even better when i used my tokens to get premium boxes, I got a duplicate ship so got 4000 Dubloons instead. So I got it for 5000 dubloons, along with two other ships in the bundles.
It’s still rigged, just not at bad as the last batch of santa crates.
My personal suspiscion is WG making it seem easy to get “USS Misery” and tweaking the lootboxes halfway into the campaign!.